Short-Term Scientific Mission

Optimal Control Strategies in a Random Two-Disease Epidemiological Model

Main theme: Optimisation Under Uncertainty
Grantee: Bismark Singh, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
Host: Dmitry Gromov, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia

Start date: 2024-09-08
End date: 2024-09-21
Awarded: 2024-07-03
Report approved: 2024-10-28

Description

This STSM supports an existing joint project of the grantee and host via an in-person visit. Its goal is to advance the state of the art for a real-world problem that is grounded in mathematical optimization, control theory, and operations research - especially under uncertainty. The fulfilment of this goal is in direct alignment with the ROAR-NET mission and has highly practical implications. Specifically, differential-equation models are built to estimate the numbers of the worried-well populations during an epidemic. Such estimates are crucial for policymakers to determine the demand for critical medical resources.

Achievements

Via the in-person visit, the collaboration that was previously taking place entirely online developed further. A mathematical model capturing the considered problem was built and then coded. Although the model is relatively simple from a mathematical perspective, its analysis revealed several interesting results for policymakers to ponder about. During the research visit, the grantee also presented a seminar on his research at the hosting institution. Following the visit, the collaboration continues online. A manuscript resulting from the STSM is under peer review.